Surge in Estimated Illegal Immigrant Population in the U.S.

A recent report from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) indicates that the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the United States has increased significantly, surpassing 18 million. The group’s findings, released as part of ongoing discussions on immigration policy, highlight an 11% rise in less than two years and a total increase of approximately 4.1 million individuals, or 28.2%, since December 2020.

Key Findings from the Report

• The current estimate as of March 2025 stands at around 18.6 million illegal immigrants.
• This figure marks an increase from the 16.8 million estimate published by FAIR in June 2023.
• The report argues that the growth in the U.S. population is substantially driven by high levels of immigration, both legal and illegal.

Defining Illegal Immigration

FAIR defines “illegal immigrants” as individuals living in the U.S. without legal status, which includes those without visas or permanent residency. It also encompasses individuals granted humanitarian statuses, such as Temporary Protected Status, although these may not be considered legally present according to the report’s criteria.

Biden Administration’s Policies and Their Impact

The report suggests that policies introduced during the Biden administration, particularly an expansion of humanitarian parole, have contributed significantly to the rise in illegal immigration numbers. This framework allowed migrants to enter the country by scheduling appointments through text-based systems.

FAIR contends that even if individuals enter legally under such policies, they should still be categorized as illegal immigrants due to their lack of permanent legal status. The report explicitly critiques the labeling of these individuals as “legal residents” as misleading.

Methodology of the Report

Utilizing Census data and accounting for what it believes to be historical undercounting of illegal arrivals, the report estimates that approximately 40% of illegal immigrants are uncounted. However, it acknowledges the inherent difficulties in accurately determining the size and characteristics of the illegal immigrant population.

Recent Developments Under the Trump Administration

The current administration, under President Donald Trump, has reversed several Biden-era policies. This includes halting certain parole programs and increasing enforcement measures, such as military deployment to border areas and expanded deportation efforts. Since this policy shift, there has reportedly been a considerable drop in border crossings, with encounters at the southern border decreasing dramatically from 189,913 in February 2024 to just 8,326 in February 2025.

Conclusion

As the debate over immigration policy persists, the differing interpretations of these immigration figures will likely continue to inform political discussions and policy decisions in the future. The FAIR report serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing complexities and challenges surrounding illegal immigration in the U.S.