Military Developments

On February 25th, the Israeli Air Force targeted military installations in Kisweh, situated 20 miles south of Damascus, as well as in the province of Daraa. This aggression aligns with Israel’s assertion to prevent southern Syria from replicating the instability experienced in southern Lebanon.

Post-Civil War Landscape

The end of a protracted 14-year civil war in Syria has left the nation’s economy devastated. The Assad regime was ousted on December 8th, 2024, following an unexpected coalition assault by rebel forces. However, the removal of Assad has not automatically steered Syria towards stability and recovery.

Critical challenges persist as the new leadership grapples with establishing credible governance, addressing food insecurity, and uniting diverse rebel factions under a singular national identity. The daily formation of long bread lines in urban centers like Damascus signals the dire economic state.

Power Struggles and Regional Influence

The ousting of Assad has accentuated the competing interests within Syria, where various factions pursue divergent visions for the country’s future. One of the principal forces, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, controls critical regions including Damascus. Other groups, such as remnants of ISIS and the Syrian Defense Force (SDF), complicate the political landscape.

Additionally, external players like the U.S., Turkey, and Russia maintain military presences in the region, vying for influence over the newly forming state. The permanence of these foreign powers, especially the U.S. military base in Al-Tanf, resonates with ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria’s future.

A New Leadership Structure

Following HTS’s control of Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa declared himself president, abolishing the former constitution and dissolving the Baath Party. His regime has made overtures to the international community by hosting visits from various foreign dignitaries, underscoring an intent to gain legitimacy and foster stability.

A priority for the transitional government is reducing Iranian influence in Syria. Removing Iran’s foothold undermines its capacity to support militant groups like Hezbollah, altering the regional power dynamics significantly. However, Israel remains cautious regarding the intentions of the new Syrian leadership amid ongoing military operations in southern Syria.

The Energy Crisis

Syria, once a robust oil producer in the Eastern Mediterranean, has seen its production plummet from approximately 383,000 barrels per day before the war to an estimated 20,000 b/d currently. Oil and gas exports, previously accounting for a quarter of the GDP, now leave Syria as a net oil importer, creating a significant economic crisis.

The extraction of natural resources has become contentious, particularly with the SDF controlling around 70% of oil fields, complicating resource negotiations under a new government structure. Syria’s two operational refineries at Banias and Homs have an uncertain output, exacerbating the pressing electricity and fuel shortages.

Crippled Electricity Supply

Fossil fuels are the mainstay for electricity in Syria, contributing to a crucial energy crisis. Current power generation is limited to about 1,500 megawatts, leading to severe rationing of electricity—operational for only two hours daily in many areas. Such energy inadequacy threatens further social unrest and amplifies the existing instability.

In response to this crisis, the U.S. has temporarily exempted humanitarian efforts related to energy transactions from sanctions, enabling neighboring nations to contribute support. Notable efforts include electricity-producing ships from Turkey and Qatar and Jordan’s commitment to enhancing grid connections.

The U.S. Military Presence

As of December 19th, 2024, approximately 2,000 U.S. military personnel occupy strategic locations in Syria, with operational responsibilities primarily focused on counter-terrorism and training local forces. The prolonged presence raises concerns about entanglement in further conflicts within the region.

Present political shifts under the current U.S. administration suggest a departure from extensive foreign military engagements, particularly in energy-secured regions, as domestic energy production rises—a factor poised to influence future foreign policy decisions.