Speaker’s Lobby: A Hitchhiker’s Guide to Choosing a Speaker of the House of Representatives

The Constitution states that the 119th Congress begins at noon on Friday.

And the first job in the House of Commons is to elect the constitutional officer of the government’s legislative branch, the Speaker of the House.

Only the House of Representatives votes for the Speaker. And, I repeat, the House cannot do anything until it elects a Speaker.

Members cannot be sworn in until the House has appointed and sworn in a Speaker. The chairman then swears in the rest of the body in unison. Next, the House must adopt a rules package to govern day-to-day operations. Only then can the House consider the bill, vote on it, and create committees for public hearings.

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If the House fails to elect a Speaker in the first vote, it must proceed to a second vote.

And on and on.

Consider for a moment that in the century before Mr. Donnybrook two years ago, the House of Commons had not even given a second vote to the speaker. In 1923, it took four votes to re-elect the late House Speaker Frederick Gillette (R-Mass.).

The past is prologue for the House. Consider how the House used 15 votes over five days to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in January 2023. The House Speaker position remained vacant for 22 days after Republicans fired Mr. McCarthy’s nine members, thus freezing the House. A few months later. House Republicans then nominated House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) to be speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before a floor vote was held. House Republicans then nominated Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to serve as speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes in the House speaker race, losing support with each vote. House Republicans then nominated House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) to be speaker. Emmer withdrew after a few hours.

House Republicans ultimately nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) to replace him. Louisiana Republicans won the chamber. But some conservatives have since become disappointed with Mr. Johnson. Much attention has been focused on how he has handled several interim spending bills since last November. They didn’t like that he allowed the Ukraine aid bill to be considered. They opposed his introduction of yet another stopgap spending bill in September. They really didn’t like the way he worked with Democrats on major must-do bills. And then there was the failure of the staggering 1,500-page interim spending package that Trump and Elon Musk crushed from afar in December. Johnson then responded to President-elect Trump’s request with another spending package that included raising the debt ceiling. But 38 House Republicans voted in favor of the bill.

Mr Johnson’s tenure was therefore turbulent. That’s why he’s in a tight spot in Friday afternoon’s presidential vote. Everyone on Capitol Hill is nervous about getting this thing over quickly.

Here’s what happens Friday at noon.

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Kevin McCumber, acting clerk of the House, will preside until a Speaker is elected. The first task is to “convene to the House of Representatives.” Here, the House simply votes “present” to establish how many elected members there are. The House of Representatives is expected to have a total of 434 members, 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be one vacant seat. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) resigned in the fall and said he has “no intention” of serving in the new Congress, despite winning re-election.

Pay attention to whether there are any absentees at the convening of the House of Representatives. Foxx has announced that several Democratic members of Congress who have recently suffered from health issues, including Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Pennsylvania), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) It is reported that he is likely to attend. However, the election of the chairman is a matter of calculation. The number of members reporting to the House determines the difference in the Speaker’s vote.

Next came the nomination speech. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) plans to nominate Johnson to chair the chamber. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York). Then anyone can suggest someone’s name.

The House then calls the list of elected members in alphabetical order. Each member stands up and responds verbally, calling out their selection by name. Rep. Alma Adams (D.N.C.), Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), and the aforementioned Rep. Aguilar are the first names on this block.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

However, members can vote for anyone. This includes people who are not members of the House of Representatives. Over the years, votes have been cast for the late General Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), former Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. That’s why I came.

This is what Johnson, or anyone else, has to do to win the Speaker’s seat.

The winning candidate must secure an absolute majority of all members voting for the candidate by name.

So let’s say you have 434 members and everyone wants to vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson receives the votes of all 219 Republicans, he wins. If Johnson receives 218 votes, he will also win. But 217? No dice. Under these circumstances, Mr. Johnson would predictably lead Mr. Jeffries in the polls, 217 to 215, with two votes going to other candidates. But “the most votes” doesn’t always win. 217 people is not a full majority of members of Congress to vote for someone by name. The House must hold another vote to elect the speaker.

Mr. Fox is said to have 12 to 17 other Republicans who could vote for him other than Mr. Johnson. And some Republicans are cautious about their votes.

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Pay attention here: Members who voted for “Giveaway”.

Some Republicans may protest simply by “presenting” rather than voting for someone other than Johnson. “Current” votes do not count against Johnson.

So let’s do some hypothetical calculations here.

Let’s say 434 members voted. Jeffries has secured the support of all 215 Democratic senators. Three Republicans voted to “attend.” In other words, don’t vote for a candidate by name. Mr. Johnson received 216 votes. He has the most votes. But more importantly, only 431 members voted for someone by name. 216 is a perfect majority of 431. 434 is not a problem in this situation. So Johnson becomes chairman.

But there is a serious danger in having too many Republicans vote “incumbent.”

Consider the following scenario.

All 215 Democrats will vote for Jeffries. However, five Republicans voted to “attend.” Mr. Johnson recorded 214 votes. 429 members voted for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Who do you think is the speaker? Jeffries. He gathered an overwhelming majority of all members to put their names forward and vote for the candidates.

(Joe Radle/Getty Images)

As the movie often says, “Mr. Bond, you are playing a very dangerous game.”

With such a close margin in the House of Representatives, it would definitely be a firestorm if Republicans lost more than half of their votes. yes. Some conservatives may not want Prime Minister Johnson to be re-elected. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries.

So it’s hard to say what will happen Friday afternoon. If the House wavers for too long, it could delay the certification of electoral votes on Monday. The House and Senate must meet in joint session on January 6 to certify the election results. No Speaker of the House? There will be no joint sessions.

But if this situation persists, something else will probably happen. Johnson supporters and mainstream Republicans have engaged with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus, and other freelancers. If the Republicans struggle to elect a speaker, we can expect an all-out brawl between these two factions.

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And, as I wrote earlier, the past is a prologue.

The protracted battle for the speakership is a prelude to an impending internal battle within the Republican Party over governance. That’s to say nothing of carrying out President-elect Trump’s only plan.