The Impact of Emerging Technologies on Defense Strategy

As advancements in drone technology and artificial intelligence continue, they are poised to significantly influence defense planning and budgeting. However, it is critical to recognize that these innovations do not render traditional manned weapons systems unnecessary. A premature reduction in the procurement of established military programs could prove strategic and financially detrimental, particularly as the threat of great power conflict looms closer.

Lessons from History

The debate surrounding the necessity of manned systems is not a novel phenomenon. Following World War I, some believed that the advent of tanks marked the end of foot infantry. Similarly, after World War II, certain military analysts suggested that airpower negated the need for naval vessels. These historical instances highlight the unpredictability of technological transformations and their implications for existing military capabilities.

Current Innovations: Drones in Warfare

Presently, air and sea drones are at the forefront of discussions regarding modernization of military capabilities. Despite calls to eliminate procurement of manned warships and aircraft in favor of a drone-centric defense strategy, ongoing global conflicts emphasize the importance of maintaining traditional systems.

For example, in the Russo–Ukrainian War and the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drones have significantly aided intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance efforts. In these instances, while drones provide essential support, they cannot operate independently in warfare. Instead, they serve to enhance the effectiveness of infantry, artillery, and armored units.

Operational Limitations of Drones

Although drones are increasingly integrated into military operations, their effectiveness in air and naval combat remains largely unexplored. A key question is whether drones will supplement or entirely replace manned systems in future engagements. For instance, combat operations in the Indo-Pacific region would demand drones with significantly greater range compared to those currently deployed in European theaters.

Cost Considerations and Tactical Implications

Contrary to the belief that unmanned systems inherently reduce operational costs, the high expense of advanced fighter jets, such as the F-35, is not solely attributable to the presence of a pilot. These aircraft require sophisticated engines, cutting-edge electronics for targeting, and advanced materials ensuring stealth capabilities. Therefore, a drone designed to meet similar operational requirements could be comparably priced. 

Additionally, while drone swarms—comprising numerous smaller drones—present intriguing possibilities, their viability in replacing traditional strike methods, such as precision-guided munitions, remains uncertain. Limited payload and operational range pose considerable challenges, particularly against fortified naval targets.

Staying Prepared for Modern Threats

Major global military powers are actively working on countermeasures against drone threats, illustrating the complex dynamics at play. Countries, including China, are enhancing their naval capacities by building new aircraft carriers and fifth-generation fighter jets, reaffirming their belief in the continued relevance of manned systems.

The United States must prioritize the procurement of warships and manned aircraft to effectively deter aggression, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. New technologies under development may take a decade or more to operationalize, underscoring the necessity of maintaining sufficient traditional combat capabilities during this transition.

Conclusion: Complementarity in Modern Warfare

While drones and autonomous systems are undoubtedly set to play an increasingly important role in military strategy, their function will likely complement, rather than replace, existing manned weapons systems. As the landscape of warfare evolves, a balanced approach integrating both technological innovation and traditional military assets will be essential in safeguarding national security.