The Trump administration faces a historic opportunity to resolve the Western Sahara conflict. Western Sahara, centered on disputed territory along North Africa’s Atlantic coast where the Moroccan and Algerian-backed Polisario Front has been in conflict since 1975, represents both a strategic opportunity and diplomatic expediency for the next government. , a tangible success that could strengthen the power of the United States. We maintain that position in the face of more complex challenges in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, and Libya.
The United States can positively change regional power relations based on the principle of “peace through strength” that made the Abraham Accords a reality. An unprecedented collaboration between France, Spain and potentially Mauritania is creating the conditions for a final solution.
Resolving this conflict would secure three important U.S. interests.
Preventing China from further expanding its influence in the strategically important corridor between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. Demonstrate the United States’ continued ability to shape outcomes in conflict zones. Strengthen relationships with trusted partners while forging new strategic alliances amid heightened regional instability.
Without decisive action, we risk ceding strategic leadership to Beijing, and deepening industrial and security partnerships in North Africa could inevitably reshape regional power relations. .
strategic imperative
The Western Sahara conflict is approaching its 50th anniversary and is at a critical crossroads. Traditional diplomatic frameworks designed for a different era now hinder rather than facilitate solutions. The changed diplomatic landscape presents an unprecedented opportunity to act decisively.
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The United States’ recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty within the framework of the Abraham Accords process under which Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel fundamentally changed the terms of the settlement. The agreement included a U.S. commitment to open a consulate in Dakhla, which the Biden administration has not fulfilled, but France’s subsequent alignment with this position has meant that the Security Council It will create a historic agreement among key members of the United States and strengthen the foundations of lasting peace. Securing this diplomatic victory early in his administration would demonstrate new strategic effectiveness and establish a foundation for addressing more difficult regional challenges.
The Western Sahara Resolution builds on existing policy frameworks and delivers an achievable victory that can generate momentum for broader regional efforts. This reinforced international consensus around Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only basis for a solution, and revealed the failure of a UN-led approach centered around fantastical options like partition. This is in stark contrast.
This is especially important now as future directions involve unprecedented regional collaboration. For the first time, France and Spain, the main actors historically and geographically close to the conflict, came together in support of Morocco’s autonomy plan as the most practical and viable solution.
This alignment could also extend to Mauritania, which maintains strong ties with France and its position as one of the West’s most reliable regional allies, while maintaining a delicate balance between Morocco and Algeria. is maintained. Bringing together these key actors, each with deep historical ties and a direct stake in regional stability, creates a unique window for achieving durable solutions.
The strategic context further calls for immediate action. Although the region’s strategic and economic potential remains largely unexplored, global powers such as Russia and China are vying for position in Morocco’s transformative infrastructure projects, including Western Sahara.
Iran’s growing influence in the region adds further complications, with reported touchpoints between Tehran’s proxies and the Polisario. The Chinese government has shown particular interest in Morocco’s wide-ranging development initiatives, including the deep-water port of Dakhla, strategic rail connections, 5G infrastructure and ambitious 2030 World Cup projects. China’s growing economic influence in Morocco threatens Western interests and demands clear strategic direction from the United States
diplomatic reset
The next administration could begin a managed transition from failed multilateral mechanisms to a focus on bilateral frameworks. This begins with phasing out MINURSO’s outdated mission, an expensive and ineffective relic of a brief period of post-Cold War multilateral optimism. The continued presence of this mission would perpetuate outdated assumptions about the likely framework for resolving the conflict and drain U.S. resources that could be used for economic development and security cooperation.
Replacing the UN Secretary-General’s personal envoy to Western Sahara with a US diplomatic effort would streamline the conflict resolution mechanism and bring it in line with current realities. This candid policy shift allows for direct U.S.-led engagement while demonstrating diplomatic ability at a time when U.S. leadership faces serious setbacks in the Sahel and is being tested from Ukraine to the Middle East. I would.
With China’s innovative industrial presence in Morocco and strategic military cooperation with Algeria, China has established itself as a reliable intermediary between Rabat and Algiers, just as it mediated the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. are. Anticipating such Chinese strategic entrepreneurship through decisive US leadership and leveraging existing regional alliances could help restore US position in the region.
Addressing Algeria’s role and regional aspirations
Resolving the Western Sahara conflict requires an honest approach that balances responsibility towards Algeria and recognition of regional aspirations. Direct U.S.-led negotiations, like the success of the Abraham Accords process, could achieve more tangible results than decades of costly but fruitless multilateral engagement. Algeria, the largest country in North Africa and a major energy producer, considers itself a regional military power with great economic potential. The next government should recognize this current situation and seek responsible leadership befitting a powerful regional entity.
This means engaging Algeria as a key player whose cooperation is essential for regional stability and integration. Algeria’s concerns about changes in regional power relations after the Western Sahara resolution are worth considering. The United States can help address these concerns through increased bilateral engagement, security cooperation frameworks, and economic partnerships that strengthen Algeria’s important regional role.
However, this recognition must be accompanied by clear expectations. As a regional power, Algeria bears a special responsibility for the perpetuation of the Western Sahara conflict and needs to demonstrate leadership in promoting regional stability.
Following an alarming pattern of domestic mobilization by the Algerian regime against Morocco, including through overtly militarized displays and rhetoric, Moroccan officials have expressed concern that is issuing a warning. The United States can leverage its strategic assets to work with Algeria to de-escalate tensions and embrace its potential role as a constructive regional actor rather than spoiling stability.
The administration should therefore pursue a dual-track approach that provides for increased bilateral cooperation and recognition of Algeria’s regional importance, while maintaining strong pressure for concrete détente with Morocco. be. This could include structured dialogue on regional security architecture, energy and technology partnerships, and economic integration efforts, all of which are conditional on progress toward conflict resolution.
Implementation of Morocco’s autonomy plan
The United States should encourage Rabat to develop a detailed and realistic implementation framework for its autonomy proposal, while maintaining clear support for Moroccan sovereignty. This framework should include concrete guarantees for inclusive participation in territorial governance and provide a dignified path for a transition from resistance to governance.
Key elements may include specific provisions regarding representation in local governance structures, such as elected local councils with substantial decision-making powers. The United States can provide expert guidance on designing transparency and oversight mechanisms that build confidence in the implementation of autonomy agreements. This would demonstrate to all parties, including Algeria, that autonomy offers a real path forward, not just a diplomatic formula.
economic integration
The Abraham Accords framework provides a blueprint for creating positive incentives for solutions. Western Sahara’s strategic location along the Atlantic coast represents an unprecedented opportunity for regional power projection and maritime security cooperation.
The territory’s extensive coastline, particularly the Dakhla region, offers significant naval potential, renewable energy development, and maritime trade routes linking Europe, Africa, and the Americas. Additionally, the Sahara Desert is poised to become a key transit point for the Africa-Atlantic Gas Pipeline, which will carry Nigerian gas to southern Europe. This is an innovative project that will fundamentally reshape Africa’s energy landscape and strengthen Morocco’s position as the gateway to European markets for African energy resources.
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A comprehensive development strategy will leverage this strategic location to create a hub for energy production and maritime trade, while integrating the region into the broader Mediterranean and Atlantic economic framework.
conclusion
The Western Sahara conflict is a rare example of a combination of strategic necessity and diplomatic opportunity. With an existing policy base and significant political goodwill from 2020, unprecedented regional alignment, and clear U.S. interests at stake, the incoming Trump 2.0 administration will be able to shift North Africa’s strategic landscape away from hostile powers. This would ensure early diplomatic success while preventing a restructure.
Success will include encouraging Algeria’s constructive engagement while maintaining strategic pressure, working with Morocco to introduce autonomy provisions to ensure inclusive governance, and integrating the territory into the broader regional economic framework. It is necessary to do so.
If the administration takes decisive action, other powers will be prevented from filling North Africa’s diplomatic vacuum. By leveraging new agreements between France and Spain, engaging decisively with Algeria, and building on the possibility of a breakthrough with Mauritania, U.S. leaders hope to secure a complete economic recovery for the Maghreb and the wider Mediterranean region. It would bring an end to decades of conflict that have hindered integration.
A resolution of Western Sahara would demonstrate a new ability for the United States to achieve concrete results in complex regional conflicts and establish momentum to address a wide range of challenges from Ukraine to the Middle East.
